Left- Professor Ding Yifan
In a detailed presentation on the current economic trends in China, Professor Ding Yifan, a respected author and economist, outlined a landscape of recovery and growth, particularly evident within consumption services and import activities. Since October, China’s economy has maintained stable progress, marked by significant improvements in various sectors.
As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s investment in key sectors—especially manufacturing—plays a pivotal role in its overall health.
Notably, China's manufacturing sector, encompassing both traditional and high-tech industries, has shown promising signs of stability and growth. The professor noted an increase in manufacturing investments, leading to a robust growth rate of 5.3% year-on-year in industrial production.
Professor Ding also serves as a researcher at the Institute of World Development as well as the Development Research Centre of The State Council in China.
The figures highlighted the expansion of critical sectors: mining grew by 4.6%, manufacturing by 5.2%, and energy supply registered a dramatic increase of 55.4%. Such developments illustrate a solid foundation for the economy as it looks to bolster industrial growth and innovations in high-tech manufacturing.
Despite facing challenges, including a notable drop of 9.2% in high-tech manufacturing, the overall trend suggests that investments in machinery and equipment are driving China’s economic restructuring. This shift underscores a broader strategy to replace traditional manufacturing methods with more advanced technologies, essential for sustaining growth amidst demographic shifts, notably a declining youth population in regions like Southern China.
Professor Ding elaborated on the manufacturing index's recovery, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reading at 50.1% in October, a 0.43% increase from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing sector is on a path of steady recuperation.
Turning to the service sector, growth is being evidenced as service-related production surged by 6.3% year-on-year. This growth is reinforced by lively expansions in financial, information, and software services—each marking impressive increases. For instance, financial services grew by 10%, while leasing services increased by 3.9%.
Retail sales also painted a favourable picture, with a rise in consumer goods reaching almost 4.8% year-on-year in October, bridging urban and rural consumption disparities. Online sales alone contributed significantly to this uptick, now representing a considerable quarter of total retail sales, indicating that consumer confidence is on the rise as China approaches its significant festive season.
Investment in fixed assets has mirrored this growth narrative, showing a 3.4% rise year-on-year, particularly prominent in high-tech industries. However, the real estate sector continues to struggle, showing a decline, as investments pivot towards manufacturing and infrastructure instead.
Professor Ding summarised that China's international trade remains an essential driver of economic growth, with exports seeing an impressive increase of 11% in October. This is juxtaposed against a more modest import growth of 3.7%, suggesting a strengthening export-oriented economy.
While consumer prices remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) marginally up by 0.3%, the producer price index (PPI) has seen a decline, further indicating a controlled inflation landscape. As the economy continues its recovery trajectory, authorities are implementing incremental policies to foster growth and bolster confidence in the face of mounting international pressures.
In conclusion, the analysis drawn by Professor Ding offers a cautious yet optimistic view of China’s economic trajectory. Moving forward, the government aims to enhance recovery efforts and reinforce momentum, keeping a keen eye on structural adjustments necessary for enduring growth in the years to come.
Daily News